Experience and instincts, to be honest, they are bastard stepparents you wish you never had. Here's the problem with experience, you only get it after you need it. It doesn't help you right now and it only teaches you enough to help you the next time. I'm talking about the kind of experience that comes from having hot hands then go on tilt and finally you tip over the fucking toilet flushing down three stacks of high society moments earlier was lining up in front of you. The kind that tells you if your girlfriend pushes you to “unnecessary” directions, decisions there is probably a good reason but you're too dumb to comprehend at that moment.
And then there's instincts. It's like catching a glimpse at that big right hook swinging from your blind spot. You see it coming, at the same time, you can't do jackshit about it and the next thing you know you're smacked face down onto that cold rough asphalt. You know, the kind that makes you queasy like De La Hoya walking back into Pacquiao. Like that time you didn't study for your “future defining” finals and you think the answer is A but your instincts tells you it's B and you're left hanging dry eventually you close your eyes, breathe, tap into your inner psyche, and you visualize a clear C in your mind. Yeah, we all know how that ends.
The point is victory loves preparation (Amat Victoria Curam.) That's where you can relate all this with Yugioh. You probably heard it a million times before about how play-testing is half the battle won and all that other whatnots. The truth is, play-testing is important because that is where you can comfortably fail with the least of consequences (or cost.) When you scrubbed a tournament and try to comfort yourself by saying "It's alright at least i gained new experiences." is probably the worst kind of self-pity and justification you can feed yourself. Hey, K'yde i still don't see your point here! It's simple, experience and instincts they don't help you with today, only with tomorrow.
There is no other way around it. That's where play-testing comes into the equation. Learn everything you can about your enemy (the Meta) and yourself (your deck of choice) during testing stages. Since experiences and instincts only help you with decision-making tomorrow choose to fail today when the cost is low compared to tomorrow when the cost is higher. Albeit there is always the caveat where luck plays a part, however, through experiences and instincts you learn how to deal with it. Or at rare times feel the storm coming before it hits. Remember that time when you wanted to make "IMBA PLAY-A" but your guts can't shut up about "IMBA PLAY-B"? How do you decide? The only rational, logical answer comes from personal experience whether or not to trust your instincts or go with the textbook best play. Either way, you only gains all these insights through experiences.